With 'Black Bird' not nominated for limited series, the supporting players from 'Beef' and 'Dahmer' have better chances of winning
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 21, 2023): There aren’t any obvious signs that any of the nominated men for supporting actor (limited) will run away with the coveted Emmy statuette.
Only two actors in the last decade have won this race without its show being nominated for outstanding limited or anthology series — Ben Whishaw for “A Very British Scandal” in 2019 and Martin Freeman for “Sherlock: His Last Vow” in 2014. That doesn’t bode well for the double “Black Bird” men – Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner Paul Walter Hauser and posthumously Ray Liotta. In addition, Murray Bartlett from “Welcome to Chippendales” and Jesse Plemons, the lone representation of “Love & Death.” Nonetheless, Hauser and/or Liotta are viable to pick up wins, garnering industry love and respect over the past year.
If Liotta is awarded, he joins only five other posthumous winners in Emmy history — Alice Pearce (“Bewitched”), David Burns (“The Price”), Diana Hyland (“The Boy in the Plastic Bubble”), Raul Julia (“The Burning Season”) and most recently Chadwick Boseman (“What If…?”).
From the series’ nominees – Richard Jenkins, who is also nominated as a producer for “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” would be an easy choice for his peers to select, coming along with decades-long respect. Bartlett is fresh off his win for “The White Lotus” last year and is a double nominee this year, along with his revered work in “The Last of Us” in guest drama actor.
“Beef” double-dippers Joseph Lee and Young Mazino could ride a potential sweep for their dark series, as contenders Steven Yeun and Ali Wong, are among the leading candidates in their respective categories.
With the category not generating immense passion from the industry, I’d bet on either Hauser or Liotta to take it.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
The rankings for the category are below.
The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, Jan. 6, and Sunday, Jan. 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
And the Nominees Are:
Episode submission: “Hand to Mouth”
Episode submission: “You Promised”
Episode submission: “Lionel”
Episode submission: “Just Not All at the Same Time”
Episode submission: “Leeches”
Episode submission: “Do No Evil”
Episode submission: “The Drama of Original Choice”
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Paul Walter Hauser — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Greg Kinnear — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Ray Liotta — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Murray Bartlett — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Daveed Diggs — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Judd Hirsch — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Tobey Maguire — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Edward Norton — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Matthew Rhys — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Forest Whitaker — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Robert Pine — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Cornelius Smith Jr. — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Robert Pine — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Nikolaj Coster-Waldau — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Zachary Shadrin — “Little America” (Apple TV+)
- Dawnn Lewis — “Blackjack Christmas” (BET+)
- Patrick Dempsey — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
- Matt Lintz — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Mohan Kapur — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Saagar Shaikh — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Rish Shah — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Hayden Christiansen — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Rupert Friend — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Kumail Nanjiani — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Wendell Pierce — “Accused” (Fox)
- Christian Slater — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Diego Boneta — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Vincent Macaigne — “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- Patrick Fugit — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Tom Pelphrey — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Jesse Plemons — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Justin Theroux — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Russell Hornsby — “Mike” (Hulu)
- Chris Cooper — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- David Dastmalchian — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Alessandro Nivola — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Bowen Yang — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- David Alan Grier — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Quentin Plair — “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- Murray Bartlett — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Quentin Plair — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Fred Armisen — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Nicholas Braun — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- August Diehl — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Joe Cole — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Liev Schreiber — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- David Choe — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Joseph Lee — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Young Mazino — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Eric André — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Ismael Cruz Córdova — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Sebastian Roche — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Martin Starr — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Glynn Turman — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Michael Beach — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Shaun J. Brown — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Rodney Burford Jr. — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Colby French — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Richard Jenkins — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Keith David — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Jai Courtney – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Peter Mark Kendall – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Rufus Sewell – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Luke David Blumm — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Henry Hunter Hall — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Richard Kind — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Terry Kinney — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Joe Mantello — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Christopher McDonald — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Michael Nouri — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Lenny Henry — “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
- Rainn Wilson — “Jerry & Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Alun Armstrong — “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
- Colin Hanks — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- Jake McDorman — “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- Sebastian Chacon — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Will Harrison — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Timothy Olyphant — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Josh Whitehouse — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Tom Wright — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Michael Chernus — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- Ciarán Hinds — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Cheech Marin — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Damson Idris — “Swarm” (Prime Video)
- Rainn Wilson — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
- Walton Goggins — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Tim Blake Nelson — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Steve Zahn — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Garrett Dillahunt — “Ghosts of Beirut” (Showtime)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Murray Bartlett as Armond in “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Season 1
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between Jun. 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
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